NewsUS hospital
May 20, 2024 02:15 PM EDT
As high inflation and interest rates hurt, Americans are delaying some more expensive, traditionally financed purchases.
This earnings season, business leaders have bemoaned the lack of consumer interest in spending large sums of money on expensive products for their bedrooms, backyards, and all areas in between. It happens at a critical juncture for the US economy, as policymakers and economists attempt to assess the impact of the double-whammy that rising borrowing rates and prices have been placing on the average American.
This is significant because it strengthens the already mounting evidence that consumer spending is, at last, slowing down, as many had long predicted. This might be encouraging for investors and consumers as it suggests the Federal Reserve may finally receive the evidence it has been waiting for-that the economy has tightened as a result of interest rate rises.
According to Ibach, the mattress business is experiencing a "historic recession," after two very difficult years, sales are expected to drop even worse. In the first quarter, the Minneapolis-based firm reported lower sales and higher losses per share than FactSet's panel of experts had predicted.
Over the last several months, executives in the consumer sector have been anticipating and, in certain cases, witnessing a slowdown. When comparing before and after the pandemic, American individuals have been postponing purchases in categories like electronics and home remodeling, according to data from Prosper Insights & Analytics, a partner of the National Retail Federation.
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In the past, a customer unsure whether a costly item was within their means would have preferred to pay with credit over a longer time frame. This is perhaps a more common emotion these days due to high inflation. But when borrowing rates increased, such choices became less popular.
Additionally, a greater number of credit card payments are past due, indicating that the period in which consumers were affluent because to the pandemic stimulus has ended. The total amount of debt held by American families has surpassed $70 billion, with the excess reaching a peak of over $2 trillion in August 2021, according per statistics examined by the San Francisco Fed. A study team saw an increase in credit card debt, and the New York Fed revealed that the total amount of debt owed by Americans is above $1 trillion.
Since the Fed routinely raises borrowing levels when prices rise faster than it believes is good for the economy, consumers are frequently confronted with high interest rates or inflation. Even still, annualized inflation is far higher than the central bank's target of 2%, although well below the pandemic's previous peak rise.
This is true even if the Fed funds rate was between 5.25% and 5.50% for over a year. In contrast, during the pandemic, that rate's meager midpoint of just 0.13% was maintained for over a year in an attempt to spur economic development.
According to Commerce Department data released on Wednesday, retail sales figures from March to April were flat despite experts surveyed by Dow Jones projecting a 0.4% monthly gain. Another indication that customers aren't keeping up with rising costs is provided by the fact that this data is seasonally adjusted but not for inflation.
Economists are keen to point out that things that make customers feel uncomfortable in the near term may be beneficial in the long run. The Fed may argue that it has exerted sufficient pressure on the economy to manage inflation and pave the path for rate reductions if consumers are reluctant to make larger purchases, particularly when combined with other trends like growing price consciousness.
People at the bottom end of the income range are most affected by this negative tendency, as are many other facets of the economy. This supports the theory that the economic recovery in the United States following the pandemic has taken the form of a "K," with the experiences of various classes diverging like the arms of a letter.
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