Insights from Davos: US Business Figures Contemplate a Trump Win in 2024

Dinners and parties at Davos have been dominated by talk about Donald Trump, with many attendees of the World Economic Forum considering the former president's possible candidacy for president again following his overwhelming victory in the Iowa vote.

US Industry Leaders Remain Unfazed by Potential Trump Re-Election

During the meeting, a number of business executives saw a common trend in their private conversations: foreign chief executives are afraid, especially of future global wars and limits on immigration, while U.S. industry leaders appear mostly unfazed by a second term for Trump.

Speaking anonymously since conversations with foreign leaders are private, a well-known American business executive speculated that European worries could originate from a misperception of the checks and balances built into the U.S. administration.

The administration called for prudence while downplaying the possibility of disastrous consequences, stressing the robustness of the legal system and the possibility of a split Congress.

In a different incident, the CEO of a U.S. bank expressed private frustration and called media sensationalism about the alleged threat of a Trump presidency "all bark and no bite." The bank CEO also dismissed Trump's insistence on not accepting the results of the 2020 election as empty rhetoric and confidently predicted a Trump victory in the future, emphasizing the policies that he believed to be beneficial.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated that some of Trump's beliefs had value but declined to forecast that Trump would win. Despite misgivings about Trump's language, Dimon emphasized Trump's positions on trade, immigration, NATO, economic development, and tax reform.

Even while worries about possible dangers to American democracy continue, Dimon voiced hope for the country's survival, whether through the reelection of President Joe Biden or the return of Trump to the White House. He acknowledged that an apocalyptic scenario is unlikely.

In private, a partner at a sizable international private equity company expressed amazement at the lack of worry among US CEOs in light of Trump's inability to concede loss in the 2020 election and the ensuing U.S. The January 6, 2021, capitol riot.

This time, according to a former official in the Trump administration, there's greater cause for fear because many of the individuals who helped to restrain Trump's destructive impulses will no longer be working with him should he win reelection.

Ben Smith, co-founder of the business news site Semafor, told CNBC on Thursday that he's heard from a lot of people in Davos that Trump is going to win. However, considering the previous performance of Davos predictions, it may potentially be a sign for Biden.

Smith and a few other guests in Davos pointed out that earlier forecasts made at the World Economic Forum have traditionally proven to be inaccurate, such as remarks made regarding the prospects for the next recession and the possibility that Trump would win the president in 2016.