Complacency has returned to the stock market according to Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Equity Strategist
"I think this is going to be a dangerous summer," those were the words straight from David Bianco, the Chief U.S Equity Strategist from Deutsche Bank when asked to assess the current state of stocks.
Bianco made his assessment in an interview on Squawk Box, which aired on CNBC.
Bianco believes inflation is already starting to go up as well. He said the Fed is allowing inflation to rise in part because they are afraid that a stronger dollar may have an unpleasant effect on the economy.
Aside from calling the stock market a dangerous place at the moment, Bianco also indicated that complacency may be making its presence felt yet again. He reached this conclusion after utilizing the PE/VIX ratio, a measure making use of price earnings and so-called fear within the stock market, according to Business Insider.
Bianco found that the PE/VIX ratio returned a figure of 1.3 for the stock market, which place it squarely between the range of complacency which ranges from 1.2 t0 1.5 on the same scale. The same kind of complacency was present in the stock market last year, before it disappeared later on in 2014.
The complacency level matters because of what occurred back in 2007 and 2008, according to The Fiscal Times. A similar kind of complacency was present in the stock market during those years, leading to a rash of activity within the market itself. The years are significant, mainly because those were the same manic years that ultimately played a huge role in the market collapsing shortly thereafter.
Bianco is also warning clients of his to be very cautious when it comes to dealing with the stock market right now. He warns that the market could trend downward by as much as 5% very soon, and that everyone should be aware of it.
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